Duncan Ermini Leaf, PhD

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Duncan Ermini Leaf is a research scientist at the USC Schaeffer Center. His specialty areas include simulation and computational methods for statistical inference and learning. He joined the Schaeffer Center in 2012 after finishing his MS and PhD in statistics at Purdue University. He also holds a BA in computer science from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

His work focuses on general improvements to the center's simulation models and analyses supporting specific simulation projects. Recent projects include adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate health outcomes in Los Angeles County, exploring the effects of palliative care interventions on medical costs and quality of life, and simulating the effects of an early-childhood education intervention through later life.

Recent Work

The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education: Participant Benefits and Family Spillovers

High-quality early childhood education generates a substantially high benefit-cost ratio when evaluating outcomes through midlife.
Categorized in
- Research
- Journal Articles
The Social Value of Disseminating Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has facilitated treatment of aortic stenosis in patients otherwise ineligible for corrective surgery or who are reluctant to undergo open-heart surgery. Schaeffer Center experts estimate the social value of past and future TAVR procedures.
Categorized in
- Research
- White Paper
The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education

Schaeffer Center experts and others follow participants into late midlife as well as their children into adulthood to study the impacts of early childhood education programs.
Categorized in
- Research
- Journal Articles
Predicting Quantity and Quality of Life with the Future Elderly Model

The FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality, while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
Categorized in
The Long-Term Benefits of Quality Early Childcare for Disadvantaged Mothers and their Children

This post discusses research on the life-cycle consequences of comprehensive early childcare programs.

By Maria Jose Prados, PhD, Jorge Luis García, PhD, James J. Heckman, PhD and Duncan Ermini Leaf, PhD
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Duncan Ermini Leaf, PhD's Bio

Recent Work

The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education: Participant Benefits and Family Spillovers

The Social Value of Disseminating Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education

Predicting Quantity and Quality of Life with the Future Elderly Model

The Long-Term Benefits of Quality Early Childcare for Disadvantaged Mothers and their Children