Research Program
Health Policy Simulation
The Schaeffer Center’s health policy simulation work has set the gold standard for researchers to effectively model future trends in health and longevity.
Program Leadership
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Bryan Tysinger, PhD
Director, Health Policy Microsimulation, USC Schaeffer Center
Research Assistant Professor, USC Price School of Public Policy
The Future Elderly Model
The pioneering Future Elderly Model (FEM) models trends in health, functional status, health spending, pharmaceutical innovation, labor supply and earnings for individuals over age 50 in the U.S. FEM has grown in reach and effectiveness from its inception in 1997 to today, assisted by funding support over the years from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the National Institutes of Health, Pfizer and the U.S. Department of Labor. In addition, the microsimulation team has created a global network of collaborators who are building out country-level FEM-based models in 17 countries. An extension of FEM, the Future Adult Model (FAM), models similar functions for individuals ages 25 to 50.
Microsimulation Researchers
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Dana Goldman, PhD
Dean and C. Erwin and Ione L. Piper Chair, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
Co-Director, USC Schaeffer Center
Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Pharmacy, and Economics, USC -
Duncan Ermini Leaf, PhD
Research Scientist, USC Schaeffer Center
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Hanke Heun-Johnson, PhD
Senior Quantitative Analyst, USC Schaeffer Center
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James J. Heckman, PhD
USC Presidential Scholar-in-Residence, USC Schaeffer Center
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago -
Julie Zissimopoulos, PhD
Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
Co-Director, Aging and Cognition Program, USC Schaeffer Center
Co-Director, CeASES ADRD and AD-RCMAR
Featured Research
Predicting Quantity and Quality of Life with the Future Elderly Model
The FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
Lifetime Burden of Adult Congenital Heart Disease in the USA Using a Microsimulation Model
Adult congenital heart disease affects quality of life, disability, life expectancy, medical spending, chronic disease, as well as employment and education outcomes.
The Troubling Health of Our Hearts
Using the Future Elderly Model, Schaeffer Center researchers analyze trends in heart failure and estimate what would happen if a cure was discovered.
The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education
Schaeffer Center experts and others follow participants into late midlife as well as their children into adulthood to study the impacts of early childhood education programs.
Reductions in Mid-Life Diabetes, Hypertension Increase Future Number of Americans with Dementia
Improving cardiovascular health at middle and older ages is not enough to slow the growth in the number of older Americans with dementia, further underscoring the need for innovations that will delay or prevent dementia.
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