Research Program
Health Policy Simulation
The Schaeffer Center’s health policy simulation work has set the gold standard for researchers to effectively model future trends in health and longevity.Â
Program Leadership
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Bryan Tysinger, PhD
Director, Health Policy Microsimulation, USC Schaeffer Center
Research Assistant Professor, USC Price School of Public Policy
The Future Elderly Model
The pioneering Future Elderly Model (FEM) models trends in health, functional status, health spending, pharmaceutical innovation, labor supply and earnings for individuals over age 50 in the U.S. FEM has grown in reach and effectiveness from its inception in 1997 to today, assisted by funding support over the years from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the National Institutes of Health, Pfizer and the U.S. Department of Labor. In addition, the microsimulation team has created a global network of collaborators who are building out country-level FEM-based models in 17 countries. An extension of FEM, the Future Adult Model (FAM), models similar functions for individuals ages 25 to 50.
Future Elderly Model
Future Adult Model
Featured Research and Perspectives
Schaeffer Center Economic Modeling Contributes to National Academy Report on Diversity in Clinical Trials
Populations underrepresented in clinical trials face worse health outcomes that will cost the U.S. trillions of dollars over the next three decades.
The Economic Case for Public Investment in Stem Cell Research
Our analysis shows the measure resulted in over 56,000 jobs created and added approximately $10 billion to the state’s economy.
The Troubling Health of Our Hearts
Schaeffer researchers analyze trends in heart failure and estimate what would happen if a cure was discovered.
The Burden of 1 Million Excess Deaths: 13.5 Million Years of Life Lost During the COVID Pandemic
Analysis of excess deaths two years into the pandemic finds adults younger than 65 years old made up 56% of life years lost.
Microsimulation Researchers
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Dana Goldman, PhD
Dean and C. Erwin and Ione L. Piper Chair, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
Co-Director, USC Schaeffer Center
Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Pharmacy, and Economics, USC
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Duncan Ermini Leaf, PhD
Research Scientist, USC Schaeffer Center
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Hanke Heun-Johnson, PhD
Research Scientist, USC Schaeffer Center
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James J. Heckman, PhD
USC Presidential Scholar-in-Residence, USC Schaeffer Center
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago -
Julie Zissimopoulos, PhD
Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
Co-Director, Aging and Cognition Program, USC Schaeffer Center
Co-Director, CeASES ADRD and AD-RCMAR
Reductions in Mid-Life Diabetes, Hypertension Increase Future Number of Americans with Dementia
Improving cardiovascular health at middle and older ages is not enough to slow the growth in the number of older Americans with dementia, further underscoring the need for innovations that will delay or prevent dementia.
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