The Future Elderly Model
The pioneering Future Elderly Model (FEM) models trends in health, functional status, health spending, pharmaceutical innovation, labor supply and earnings for individuals over age 50 in the U.S. FEM has grown in reach and effectiveness from its inception in 1997 to today, assisted by funding support over the years from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the National Institutes of Health, Pfizer and the U.S. Department of Labor. In addition, the microsimulation team has created a global network of collaborators who are building out country-level FEM-based models in 17 countries. An extension of FEM, the Future Adult Model (FAM), models similar functions for individuals ages 25 to 50.
Dean and C. Erwin and Ione L. Piper Chair, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
Co-Director, USC Schaeffer Center
Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Pharmacy, and Economics, USC
Research Scientist, USC Schaeffer Center
Senior Quantitative Analyst, USC Schaeffer Center
USC Presidential Scholar-in-Residence, USC Schaeffer Center
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago
Director, Research Training Program, USC Schaeffer Center
Co-Director, Aging and Cognition Program, USC Schaeffer Center
Associate Professor, USC Price School of Public Policy
The FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
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