The Schaeffer Center’s Data Core and Microsimulation teams partner with local, state, federal and international collaborators to develop data projects and microsimulation models. These collaborations include:
Global Impact of Inequality on the Future Elderly
Partner Institution: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
In 2017, the OECD released “Preventing Ageing Unequally” – a report examining how the two global mega-trends of population aging and rising inequalities have been developing and interacting, both within and across generations. The OECD partnered with the Schaeffer Center and the Centre for Economic and International Studies, University of Rome Tor Vergata to develop a pilot model (Global FEM) that projects the health and economic circumstances of population cohorts in Belgium, Italy, and the U.S. to assess how current income inequalities during working-age years could pass into inequalities at older ages and the impact of inequality in life-expectancy trends on social benefits.
In addition, the Roybal Center has fostered a team of global collaborators who are employing FEM-based microsimulation methods to forecast long-term trends in disease dynamics in 15 countries in North America, Europe and Asia. Teams have completed FEM-based microsimulation models in Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. Kenya and Taiwan have FEM-based microsimulation models still in progress.
Changes in Life Expectancy and the Progressivity of Federal Programs
Partner Institution: The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
For a recent National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, a committee chaired by Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley) and Peter R. Orszag (Citigroup) collaborated with Schaeffer Center researchers to investigate the macroeconomic implications of trends in health inequality in the U.S. Employing FEM, the committee examined how changes in life expectancy will likely affect the progressivity of federal programs. Findings suggest significant reductions in progressivity of both Medicare and Social Security if current mortality trends persist and noticeable effects on total programming costs.
Impact of Tobacco Taxation in Los Angeles County
Partner Institution: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health relied on the Schaeffer Center’s microsimulation efforts to analyze the long-term health effects of Proposition 56, the California Tobacco Tax for Healthcare, Research and Prevention Act of 2016, which increased taxes on cigarettes and other tobacco products in the state of California. The collaboration resulted in a new dynamic microsimulation, the Future Los Angeles Model, which projects future health and economic trends in the adult population of L.A. County. Using this model, the department mapped out the projected long-term impact of the proposed tax, including 50,000 fewer new adolescent and young adult smokers and 11,000 fewer premature deaths across the region.
Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count
Partnership Institution: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA) and the USC Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work
Data from the Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count is analyzed by the Schaeffer Center’s data core team who clean, categorize and divide the data to understand key components of the homeless population, including age, race, ethnicity, chronic mental and physical health problems, HIV status, veteran status and the length of time persons have experienced homelessness. The Schaeffer Center has been the data partner since 2017. The numbers, which are reported to the federal government, ultimately help determine funding for services.