National Institute on Aging, Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation

National Institute on Aging, Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation

Principal Investigator: Dana Goldman

The Roybal Center is a collaborative effort between USC and the RAND Corporation. The mission of the Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation is to develop better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending and health care delivery. In 2010, the Roybal Center moved to USC’s Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. Funded by the National Institute on Aging since 2004, the Roybal Center supports the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a multi-year effort to identify and forecast the consequences of medical breakthroughs over the next 30 years, and the role that regulation plays in promoting or hindering global innovation. The FEM has already begun to shape the national discussion about the role that medical technology will play in explaining health and health care spending. The FEM has also provided the first quantifiable model of the long-run population health consequences of pharmaceutical regulation.

The Future Elderly Model

The Future Elderly Model is a demographic and economic simulation model designed to predict the future costs and health status of the elderly and explore what current trends or future shifts imply for policy. Developed by Dana Goldman and his colleagues at the USC and RAND Roybal Center, the model uses a representative sample of approximately 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and over drawn from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, national surveys that ask Medicare beneficiaries about chronic conditions, use of health care services, medical care spending, and health insurance coverage. Each beneficiary in the sample is linked to Medicare claims records to track actual medical care use and costs over time.

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