Future Elderly Model Technical Specifications

The defining characteristic of the Future Elderly Model is the modeling of real rather than synthetic cohorts, all of whom are followed at the individual level. The model is comprised of three core components: the initial cohort module, which projects economic or health outcomes for the 51+ population in a given year; the transition  module, which calculates the probability of transiting across various health states and financial outcomes; and the policy outcomes module, which aggregates these individual-level projections into policy outcomes, such as taxes, medical care costs, pension benefits paid, and disability benefits.

Outcomes for the first of these two modules include:

Estimated Outcomes in Initial Conditions Model

Estimated Outcomes in/from Transition Model

Additional technical information on the Future Elderly Model, including funding and data sources: